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Will strong March home sales give way to canaries?

April 24, 2020
By BOB & GERI QUINN - Homing In , Cape Coral Daily Breeze

The number of overall closed single-family home sales in Cape Coral hit all-time highs for the month of March, to wrap-up the best first quarter ever. But the canaries seem to be gathering in the coal mine as we are heading into the second quarter of 2020, in what is historically our best time of year for closed home sales. Depending upon how one wants to shape the data, based on the number of closed home sales from April 1-19, we are projecting that the total sales in the Cape for the first four months of this year will likely match, or top, the 1,584 sales over the first four months of 2019. So one can factually state that homes are still being sold and that we are on pace to beat last year's record number of home sales.

However, based on the decline in closed home sales in the first 19 days of April, we can put together a reasonable model suggesting that closed sales this April are likely to come in some 25 percent, or so, below the 504 sales registered in April 2019. In fact, we are likely to see the lowest number of closed sales in the month of April dating back to the 426 sales in April 2015, with the potential to come in below 400 closed sales for the month. With data and statistics, sometimes it's a matter of how one wants to present the facts. Hopefully, we will see a leveling out, or a flattening of this declining sales curve, in May and June.

In the overall Cape Coral single-family home market, there were 542 closed sales in March, which was 15.81 percent higher than the 468 sales in March 2019, and 44.92 percent above the 374 sales in February of this year. In the first quarter of 2020, there have been a total of 1,229 closed home sales in the Cape, or 13.8 percent above the total of 1,080 sales in the first quarter of last year, but down 1.52 percent from the 1,248 sales in the fourth quarter of 2019.

The median sales price in the Cape's overall single-family home market was $257,320 in March, or 7.22 percent higher than the $240,000 posted in March 2019, and 1.13 percent above the $254,450 in February of this year. In the first quarter of 2020, the median sales price averaged $252,257 per month, or 5.33 percent higher than the average of $239,500 in the first quarter of last year, and 1.21 percent above the average of $249,253 per month in the fourth quarter of 2019.

Gulf access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family gulf access canal home segment, there were 108 closed sales in March, which was 8 percent higher than the 100 sales in March 2019, and 27.06 percent above the 85 sales in February of this year. In the first quarter of 2020, there have been a total of 267 closed home sales in this segment, or 14.59 percent more than the total of 233 sales in the first quarter of last year, and up 1.14 percent from the 264 sales in the fourth quarter of 2019.

The median sales price in the Cape's single-family gulf access canal home segment was $442,500 in March, or 9.67 percent higher than the $403,500 posted in March 2019, but 7.81 percent below the $480,000 in February of this year. In the first quarter of 2020, the median sales price averaged $464,167 per month, or 9.78 percent higher than the average of $422,817 in the first quarter of last year, and 4.42 percent above the average of $444,500 per month in the fourth quarter of 2019.

Sailboat access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family sailboat access canal home segment, which is a subgroup of gulf access homes, there were 53 closed sales in March, which was even with the 53 sales in March 2019, and 29.27 percent above the 41 sales in February of this year. In the first quarter of 2020, there have been a total of 136 closed home sales in this segment, or 10.57 percent more than the total of 123 sales in the first quarter of last year, and up 17.24 percent from the 116 sales in the fourth quarter of 2019.

The median sales price in the Cape's single-family sailboat access canal home segment was $440,000 in March, or 14.29 percent higher than the $385,000 posted in March 2019, but 16.59 percent below the $527,500 in February of this year. In the first quarter of 2020, the median sales price averaged $479,000 per month, or 7.32 percent higher than the average of $446,333 in the first quarter of last year, and 10.46 percent above the average of $433,633 per month in the fourth quarter of 2019.

Freshwater canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family freshwater canal home segment, there were 74 closed sales in March, which was 34.55 percent higher than the 55 sales in March 2019, and 68.18 percent above the 44 sales in February of this year. In the first quarter of 2020, there have been a total of 146 closed home sales in this segment, or 28.07 percent more than the total of 114 sales in the first quarter of last year, and up 20.66 percent from the 121 sales in the fourth quarter of 2019.

The median sales price in the Cape's single-family freshwater canal home segment was $324,950 in March, or 3.16 percent higher than the $315,000 posted in March of 2019, and 7.53 percent above the $302,200 in February of this year. In the first quarter of 2020, the median sales price averaged $305,467 per month in this segment, or 5.61 percent higher than the average of $289,250 in the first quarter of last year, and 6.22 percent above the average of $287,583 per month in the fourth quarter of 2019. This is the first quarterly average median sales price to top $300,000 per month in freshwater canal homes since averaging $317,333 in the second quarter of 2007. As a comparison, the highest quarterly median sales price in this segment averaged $348,833 per month in the first quarter of 2006.

Dry lot canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family dry lot (non-canal) home segment, there were 360 closed sales in March, which was 15.76 percent higher than the 311 sales in March 2019, and 46.94 percent above the 245 sales in February of this year. In the first quarter of 2020, there have been a total of 815 closed home sales in this segment, or 11.49 percent more than the total of 731 sales in the first quarter of last year, but down 5.56 percent from the 863 sales in the fourth quarter of 2019.

The median sales price in the Cape's single-family dry lot home segment was $226,000 in March, or 5.12 percent higher than the $215,000 posted in March 2019, but only 0.44 percent above the $225,000 in February of this year. In the first quarter of 2020, the median sales price averaged $224,384 per month in this segment, or 3.10 percent higher than the average of $217,633 in the first quarter of last year, but 0.57 percent below the average of $225,667 per month in the fourth quarter of 2019.

(The sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, Fla., as of April 20, 2020. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral single-family homes, and does not include condominiums, short sales or foreclosures. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 40 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob joined Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.)

 
 
 

 

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