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Huge improvements in the unsold home supply in 2019

January 31, 2020
By BOB & GERI QUINN - Homing In , Cape Coral Daily Breeze

After the numbers in the overall Cape Coral single-family home market for the monthly level of unsold supply in the first quarter of 2019 got off to its worst start in a new year since 2014, with an average of 9 months of inventory, our market showed its resilience. It managed to shake off this bad start to post three consecutive quarters with supply levels averaging less than 6 months. Because of this trend, we would consider our overall market to be in a lower supply, seller's market as we head into 2020. Our optimism going into the new year is further bolstered by the fact that we finished 2019 with some of the lowest inventory numbers that we have seen in years.

However, in a normal market based on past market trends, we would expect to see a shift back towards a higher seasonal inventory throughout our single-family home market during January. But with lower interest rates from what appears to be continued interest rate market manipulation by the Federal Reserve, our normal seasonal real estate market cycle might be different this year. Rates have been pushed even lower by a recent "flight to quality" in the U.S. Treasury market due to concerns about the Coronavirus. So barring an all out pandemic freezing the global economy, the lower interest rates may create enough extra buying power in our real estate market to help offset much of the usual first quarter increases in supply.

As we have mentioned in the past when analyzing our market, it can be misleading to simply use the numbers from our overall market to state that the Cape is in a seller's market. This is why we go the extra statistical mile of breaking our market down into specific segments, thus providing a more accurate picture of the unique markets within our market. Understanding the make up of our market dynamics helps both buyers and sellers determine a more realistic, or reasonable price point at which a home is likely to attract a buyer and be sold.

Analyzed in this manner, the only segment of our single-family home market that is actually in a lower supply seller's market is the dry lot home segment. Since the dry lot segment makes up about 68 percent of all home sales in the Cape, it has the heaviest influence on the inventory numbers for our overall market. When one considers that the Gulf access canal home segment makes up about 21 percent of the total home sales in the Cape, and that this segment is in the high end of a neutral market range, it helps illustrate how misleading it can be to make the call that we are simply in a seller's market. Sailboat access canal homes, which currently make up about 46 percent of Gulf access home sales, have inventory numbers that are closer to being in a higher supply buyer's market. While freshwater canal homes, making up about 11 percent of our total home sales, finished the year firmly locked in a neutral market in 2019. The supply details for each market segment are shown below.

In the overall Cape Coral single-family home market, the monthly level of unsold supply came in at 5 months in December. This was 37.5 percent lower than the 8 months of unsold supply in December 2018. In the fourth quarter of 2019, the monthly average of unsold supply was 5.67 months, which was 26.08 percent below the average of 7.67 months of supply in the fourth quarter of 2018. This was the lowest level of fourth quarter inventory in the Cape's overall single-family home market since it averaged 4.33 months back in the fourth quarter of 2012. For the year, the monthly unsold supply level averaged 6.25 months in 2019, or 3.86 percent less than the average of 6.5 months of unsold supply in 2018.

Gulf access

canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family Gulf access canal home segment, the monthly level of unsold supply came in at 5 months in December, which was 53.85 percent lower than the 13 months of unsold supply in December 2018. In the fourth quarter of 2019, the monthly average of unsold supply in this segment was 7.67 months, which was 41 percent below the average of 13 months of supply in the fourth quarter of 2018. For the year, the monthly unsold supply level for Gulf access homes averaged 8.5 months in 2019, which was 14.31 percent less than the average of 9.92 months of unsold supply in 2018.

Sailboat access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family sailboat access canal home segment, which is a subgroup of Gulf access homes, the monthly level of unsold supply came in at 8 months in December, which was 33.33 percent lower than the 12 months of unsold supply in December 2018. In the fourth quarter of 2019, the monthly average of unsold supply in this segment was 8.67 months, which was 42.2 percent below the average of 15 months of supply in the fourth quarter of 2018. For the year, the monthly unsold supply level for sailboat access homes averaged 9 months in 2019, which was 15.65 percent less than the average of 10.67 months of unsold supply in 2018.

Freshwater canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family freshwater canal home segment, the monthly level of unsold supply came in at 5 months in December, which was 37.5 percent lower than the 8 months of unsold supply in December 2018. In the fourth quarter of 2019, the monthly average of unsold supply in this segment was 6.67 months, which was 4.71 percent below the average of 7 months of supply in the fourth quarter of 2018. For the year, the monthly unsold supply level for freshwater canal homes averaged 6.75 months in 2019, which was 1.2 percent higher than the average of 6.67 months of unsold supply in 2018.

Dry lot homes

In the Cape Coral single-family dry lot (non-canal) home segment, the monthly level of unsold supply came in at 5 months in December, which was 28.57 percent lower than the 7 months of unsold supply in December 2018. In the fourth quarter of 2019, the monthly average of unsold supply in this segment was 5 months, which was 25.04 percent below the average of 6.67 months of supply in the fourth quarter of 2018. For the year, the monthly unsold supply level for dry lot homes averaged 5.83 months in 2019, which was even with the average of 5.83 months of unsold supply in 2018.

(The sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, Fla., as of Jan. 19, 2020. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral single family homes, and does not include condominiums, short sales or foreclosures. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 40 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob joined with Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.)

 
 
 

 

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