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April supply of unsold homes is higher versus last year

May 31, 2019
By BOB & GERI QUINN - Homing In , Cape Coral Daily Breeze

If we were to summarize the level of the monthly supply of unsold Cape Coral single-family homes listed for sale in the month of April, it would be that the supply is higher across the board compared to April of last year. Having a higher supply of unsold homes tends to be more of a positive for someone trying to buy a home and more of a negative for someone trying to sell their home, but in the Cape the impact varies widely by property type. In our current market, if sellers price their home correctly, it will most likely be sold very quickly.

This brings us to a random conversation we had with someone last week who told us they moved to this area about a year ago. They indicated that they have been working with a local Realtor to buy home, but they felt that a lot of homes were overpriced, so they have decided to, "Wait for the housing market to collapse again in the next year or so," before trying to buy a home in Cape Coral. So we thought we would throw in a comparison of our current unsold supply levels versus the levels near the market peak in 2006 and 2007, when the foundation of the local housing market was in the early stages of crumbling from its own weight.

In the overall Cape Coral single-family home market, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at 6 months in April, which was 20 percent higher than the 5 months of unsold supply registered in April 2018. This compares to 23 months of unsold supply in April 2007. On a positive note, the unsold supply this April was 14.29 percent lower than the 7 months of unsold supply in March of this year, as the supply usually begins to decline in the second quarter of the year. Through the first four months of 2019, the level of unsold supply in the overall Cape single-family home market has averaged 8.25 months, or 22.22 percent above the average of 6.75 months during the first four months of last year. This places our overall home market in a neutral market so far in 2019.

Gulf access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family gulf access canal home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at 8 months in April, which was 14.29 percent higher than the 7 months of unsold supply registered in April 2018. This compares to 41 months of unsold supply in April 2006. The unsold supply this April, at 8 months, was 11.11 percent lower than the 9 months of unsold supply in March of this year. Through the first four months of 2019, the level of unsold supply in this segment has averaged 11.25 months, or 7.14 percent above the average of 10.5 months of supply during the first four months of last year. So, despite following a seasonal trend towards a lower level of monthly unsold supply, for people trying to sell their gulf access homes, this segment still has the hangover effects of a higher inventory buyer's market, with an average of 11.25 months of unsold supply so far in 2019.

Sailboat access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family sailboat access canal home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at 9 months in April, which was 28.57 percent higher than the 7 months of unsold supply registered in April 2018. This compares to 42 months of unsold supply in April 2006. The unsold supply this April, at 9 months, was also 12.5 percent higher than the 8 months of unsold supply in March of this year. Through the first four months of 2019, the level of unsold supply in this segment has averaged 11 months, or 12.82 percent above the average of 9.75 months of supply during the first four months of last year. This was the highest level of unsold supply in this segment in the first four months of the year since 2016, when the average was 12.5 months of unsold supply. This places the Cape's sailboat access canal home segment in a higher inventory buyer's market so far in 2019.

Freshwater canal homes

The Cape Coral single-family freshwater canal home segment continues to struggle with an unusually high level of unsold supply in 2019. In April, the unsold supply was at 8 months, which was 60 percent higher than the 5 months of supply registered in April 2018, and 33.33 percent above the 6 months of supply in March of this year. This compares to 24 months of unsold supply in April 2007. Through the first four months of 2019, the level of unsold supply in this segment has averaged 9.25 months, which was 37.04 percent above the average of 6.75 months of unsold supply during the first four months of last year. The unsold supply numbers for freshwater canal homes are currently in the high end of being in a neutral market range, and bordering on being in a buyer's market so far in 2019.

Dry lot homes

In the Cape Coral single-family dry lot (non-canal) home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at 6 months in April, which was 20 percent higher than the 5 months of unsold supply registered in April 2018. This compares to 24 months of unsold supply in April 2007. At 6 months, the unsold supply this April was flat with the 6 months of unsold supply in March of this year. Through the first four months of 2019, the level of unsold supply in this segment has averaged 7.5 months, which was 25 percent above the average of 6 months of supply during the first four months of last year. This segment remains in a neutral market so far this year, after spending the majority of its time in a lower inventory seller's market since back in 2015.

The unsold supply of homes in Cape Coral, along with the level of home prices and the economic drivers of our current market, are nothing like they were when we experienced the irrational mortgage-backed market rise and collapse from about 12 years ago. Buyers in our market are remaining rational, which is most likely making any current slowdown in our market more of a rational pause to refresh, than the next dramatic downturn. If a "market collapse" is in our near term future, it would seem that it would be most likely caused by more of a "black swan" event, than due to anything showing up in our current trends, or something one could plan for at this point in time.

(The sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, Fla., as of May 19, 2019. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral single-family homes, and does not include condominiums, short sales or foreclosures. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 39 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob joined with Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.)

 
 
 

 

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