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Cape unsold condo supply spikes higher versus 2018

May 17, 2019
By BOB & GERI QUINN - Homing In , Cape Coral Daily Breeze

We had mostly dismal results with the numbers for the monthly supply of unsold Cape Coral condominiums in the month of March, and for the first quarter of 2019. But the good news is that the preliminary unsold supply numbers in our condo market are looking much better for the month of April. This upcoming turnaround towards a lower supply of condos is being led by a big increase in the number of closed condo sales in April, which looks as if it will be leading the way into a strong second quarter condo rally.

But before getting too far ahead of ourselves, we need to put a wrap on the unsold supply numbers for March and the first quarter of this year. As you look at the details below, remember that a higher level of unsold supply tends to be better for someone trying to buy a home or condo, while a lower level of unsold supply, especially if the supply is less than six months, tends to be better for someone trying to sell their home or condo.

The key takeaway with the monthly supply of unsold condos in Cape Coral was that despite a decline in the supply from February of this year into the month of March, which was a good thing, the level of unsold condo supply was much higher this March than it was in March of last year. This higher supply versus last March is generally not a good thing. The second key takeaway regarding the unsold Cape Coral condo supply is the fact that the levels in the first quarter of this year were substantially higher than they were in the first quarter of 2018. This higher first quarter inventory was also not a good thing, so hopefully, the stronger condo market numbers in April will take hold and get us back on track for the remainder of this year.

In the overall Cape Coral condominium market, the monthly supply of unsold condos came in at 7 months in March, which was 40 percent higher than the 5 months of unsold supply in March 2018, but 30 percent below the 10 months of unsold supply from February of this year. The overall unsold supply of Cape condos was also higher in the first quarter of this year, registering an average of 9 months of inventory, to come in 50 percent higher than the 6 months of unsold supply over the first three months of 2018, while running flat versus the 9 months of unsold supply in the fourth quarter of last year. The preliminary level of unsold condo supply in the month of April will be coming in lower, at 6 months, meaning the Cape's overall condo market seems to be making its seasonal move towards a lower second quarter inventory. This should begin shifting the overall Cape condo market from a higher inventory buyers market towards more of a neutral market, with a more manageable level of unsold supply over the next several months.

Gulf access canal condos

In the Cape Coral gulf access canal condo segment, the monthly supply of unsold condos came in at 8 months in March, which was 60 percent higher than the 5 months of unsold supply in March 2018, while posting a 30 percent decline from the 16 months of unsold supply in February of this year. In the first quarter of 2019, the monthly supply of unsold condos in this segment averaged 12.33 months, which was 76.14 percent higher than the average of 7 months of unsold supply over the first three months of last year, while remaining flat with the average of 12.33 months of supply in the fourth quarter of 2018. The preliminary numbers for April are showing only 6 months of unsold supply, as gulf access condo sales in the Cape appear to be on their way to a record number of closed sales for the month of April. So, after three consecutive quarters of being in a high supply buyer's market, this segment looks as if it will have a respite in a lower supply neutral market during the second quarter of this year. This downshift in supply is coming as gulf access condos try to shake off the chill from their worst January and February, when it recorded its highest combined unsold supply since the first two months of the year back in 2009.

Sailboat access canal condos

The results in the Cape Coral sailboat access canal condo segment, which is a subgroup of gulf access condos, were not quite as strong, as the monthly supply of unsold condos came in at 11 months in March. This was 120 percent higher than the 5 months of unsold supply in March 2018, but it was 42.11 percent less than the 19 months of unsold supply in February of this year. In the first quarter of 2019, the monthly supply of unsold condos in this segment averaged 14.33 months, which was more than double the average of 7 months of unsold supply over the first three months of last year, while only coming in at 4.83 percent higher than the average of 13.67 months of unsold supply in the fourth quarter of 2018. The Cape's sailboat access canal condo segment remains deeply entrenched in a high inventory buyer's market, although it appears to be headed towards a record level of closed sales for the month of April, which will lead to a correspondingly large decline to its monthly level of unsold supply.

Dry lot condos

In the Cape Coral dry lot (non-canal) condo segment, the monthly supply of unsold condos came in at 7 months in March, which was 40 percent higher than the 5 months of unsold supply in March 2018, and flat with the 7 months of unsold supply in February of this year. In the first quarter of 2019, the monthly supply of unsold condos in this segment averaged 6.67 months, which was 25.14 percent higher than the average of 5.33 months of unsold supply over the first three months of 2018, while remaining flat with the average of 6.67 months of supply in the fourth quarter of last year. As with the rest of the Cape Coral condo market, the number of closed sales will be moving higher in the month of April, and the level of the monthly supply of unsold condos will be declining as we head into the second quarter of 2019. Despite the levels of the monthly supply of unsold dry lot condos running higher so far this year compared to 2018, this segment is still firmly positioned in a neutral market.

(The sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, Fla., as of May 6, 2019. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral condominiums, townhouses, and villas, and it does not include single-family homes, short sales, or foreclosures. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 39 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob joined with Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.)

 
 
 

 

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