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March unsold home supply down, but up for the year

May 3, 2019
By BOB & GERI QUINN - Homing In , Cape Coral Daily Breeze

When it comes to the levels of unsold supply in the Cape Coral single-family home market, there have been several clear cut takeaways in the data so far this year. The first is that we saw the all-important seasonal decline in the levels of the unsold supply of homes sitting on the market for sale from the month of February to March of this year. This long-time trend tends to correlate to the rising number of closed home sales typically seen during our peak months for sales, which almost always occurs sometime between the months of March and June. So this drop in unsold supply during March was a very good thing. The second major takeaway from the unsold supply, or inventory numbers, in the Cape Coral home market is the fact that the inventory was running higher in the first quarter of 2019, compared to the first quarter of last year. In addition, the inventory is running quite a bit higher than the 12-month average unsold supply for the entire year in 2018. This is not a good thing, especially for someone trying to sell their home, because it means there is more competition out there with other home-sellers. This brings us to our third takeaway based on this market data, which is that it will likely be even more critical for a seller to price their home properly to the current market in 2019, if they really want to attract a buyer and get their home sold.

In the overall Cape Coral single-family home market, the monthly supply of unsold homes listed for sale in the month of March declined 22.22 percent to 7 months, from 9 months of unsold supply in February of this year. But despite this seasonal trend remaining in place again this year, the unsold supply this March was 16.67 percent higher than the 6 months of supply registered in March 2018. In addition, the average of 9 months of supply in the first quarter of this year was the highest level of supply since it averaged 10 months over the first three months of 2014. This level of unsold supply in the first quarter of 2019 was also 22.78 percent higher than the average of 7.33 months of unsold supply from the first quarter of 2018, and 17.34 percent above the average of 7.67 months of supply in the fourth quarter of last year. This places our overall single-family home market at a level where it would be considered a buyer's market, especially when one considers the fact that we were in a neutral market in 2018, with an average of only 6.5 months unsold supply for the year.

Gulf access canal homes

The monthly supply of unsold Cape Coral Gulf access canal homes came in at 9 months in March, which was 18.18 percent less than the 11 months of unsold supply in February of this year, and 10 percent below the 10 months of unsold supply from back in March 2018. Over the first three months of this year, the unsold supply averaged 12 months, or 2.83 percent higher than the average of 11.67 months of supply in first quarter of 2018, but 7.69 percent below the average of 13 months recorded during the fourth quarter of last year. Despite the lower level of unsold supply in March, this segment remains positioned in a buyer's market after averaging 9.92 months of unsold supply for the year in 2018.

Sailboat access canal homes

In the Cape's single-family sailboat access canal home segment, the supply of unsold homes also came in at 9 months in March, which was 10 percent below the 10 months of unsold supply registered in both February of this year, and in March of last year. However, in the first quarter of this year, the supply of unsold homes in this segment moved 12.46 percent higher to an average of 12 months of supply, compared to an average of 10.67 months of supply over the first three months of 2018, while declining 18.2 percent from the average of 14.67 months of unsold supply in the fourth quarter of last year. This segment had an average monthly supply of unsold homes of 10.58 months in 2018, versus the current 3 month average of 12 months of supply, so this part of our market is still firmly in a buyer's market.

Freshwater canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family freshwater canal home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes dropped 45.45 percent to 6 months of supply in March, from 11 months of unsold supply in February of this year, while coming in flat with the 6 months of unsold supply from March of last year. But this plunge in the March supply was not enough to offset the poor start to this year in this segment, when the unsold supply came in at very high levels. This resulted in a 31.92 percent rise in the unsold supply during the first quarter of this year, to an average of 9.67 months, versus an average of 7.33 months of supply in the first quarter of 2018, and an increase of 38.14 percent from the average of 7 months of unsold supply in the fourth quarter of last year. By comparison, the 12-month average was only 6.67 months of unsold supply for the entire year in 2018, when this segment remained in a neutral market before spiking to buyer's market levels in January of this year, with 12 months of supply. At this point, this segment appears to be trying to shift from a buyer's market back towards neutral market levels.

Dry lot homes

In the Cape Coral single-family dry lot (non-canal) home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes dropped 25 percent to 6 months of supply in March, from 8 months of unsold supply in February of this year. However, it was up 20 percent from 5 months of unsold supply in March of last year. The unsold supply in this segment was also 26.38 percent higher in the first quarter of this year, averaging 8 months, versus an average of 6.33 months of supply in the first quarter of 2018, and it was up 19.94 percent above the average of 6.67 months of unsold supply in the fourth quarter of last year. At this point, the dry lot home segment appears likely to spend more of this year trending in a neutral market, after spending multiple years as the only portion of our market in a lower inventory seller's market. In 2018, the average monthly unsold supply for dry lot homes was 5.83 months for the year, but we started to see a gradual shift towards a higher inventory neutral market in the fourth quarter of last year. In fact, we had the highest level of unsold supply in back-to-back quarters in this segment since the fourth quarter of 2013, and the first quarter of 2014, which averaged 6 months and 8.33 months of unsold supply, respectively.

(The sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, Fla., as of April 22, 2019. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral single family homes, and does not include condominiums, short sales, or foreclosures. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 39 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob joined with Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.)

 
 
 

 

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