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Unsold gulf and sailboat access homes spike higher

November 9, 2018
By BOB & GERI QUINN - Homing In , Cape Coral Daily Breeze

As we have pointed out numerous times in our column, one of the reasons why we do not provide just one simple, broad statistical overview of the Cape Coral real estate market is because there is a high probability that it would present a misleading and inaccurate picture of our market. This is because we have very unique property types and neighborhoods in the Cape, which create very separate and distinct markets within our market. In order to try to capture these unique features as accurately as possible, we break down our market statistics into specific property segments, which can provide a deeper insight into market trends.

Such is the case today with the numbers for the monthly supply of unsold Cape Coral homes, where having a lower supply is a good thing, while a high supply can be a sign that a problem is brewing within the market. However, a higher supply does not always mean there is a problem, as it has been pretty common for us to have a much higher monthly supply of unsold Gulf and sailboat access canal homes available for sale compared to a typically lower supply of unsold freshwater canal and dry lot homes. This is purely a function of our market, where roughly 77 percent of all homes sold in the Cape are priced under $325,000 and the median sales prices for Gulf and sailboat access homes are substantially higher than that, creating a much smaller market for these homes by comparison.

But, the September and third quarter numbers for the supply of unsold homes seem to be confirming the issues we have recently noted with decreased sales and lower median sales prices in the Gulf and sailboat access home segments. The culprit would certainly seem to be tied to the water quality issues of the past year, and with reports of new red tide blooms in the Gulf, and new algae blooms forming in Lake Okeechobee, we would tend to expect added pressure on these market segments going into 2019.

During the month of September in the overall Cape Coral single-family home market, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at 7 months, which was equal to September 2017, but 40 percent higher than the 5 months of unsold supply from this past August. In the third quarter, the unsold supply averaged 6 months, up 5.82 percent over the average of 5.67 months in the third quarter of last year, and 20 percent higher than the 5-month average during the second quarter of this year. Through Sept. 30, the supply of unsold homes in the overall Cape single-family home market is down 1.77 percent to an average of 6.11 months in 2018, compared to an average of 6.22 percent over the first 9 months of 2017. This places our overall market in a neutral market, however, as shown below, there are some significant differences between each specific property segment in the Cape.

Gulf access canal homes

The monthly supply of unsold Cape Coral single-family Gulf access homes spiked higher this September, coming in at 12 months of unsold supply, which was 50 percent higher than the 8 months of unsold supply from September 2017, and 71.43 percent above the 7 months of supply in August of this year. In the third quarter, the average supply of unsold homes in this segment averaged 9 months, up 17.34 percent versus the average of 7.67 months of unsold supply in the third quarter of 2017, and 42.18 percent above the average unsold supply of 6.33 months in the second quarter of this year. Through Sept. 30, the unsold supply is averaging 9 months in 2018, which is only 2.51 percent higher than the average of 8.78 months over the first nine months of 2017. This places the Gulf access home segment in the high end of the neutral market range, but quickly trending towards a buyers market, after posting the highest level of unsold supply for the month of September since 2013.

Sailboat access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family sailboat access canal home segment, which is a subgroup of Gulf access homes, we are also seeing a shift higher in the trends for the monthly supply of unsold homes, which reached 12 months in September. This was the highest September total for this segment since 2015, and it was 20 percent above the 10 months of unsold supply posted in September 2017, and 33.33 percent above the 9 months of unsold supply in August of this year. In the third quarter, the unsold supply averaged 10.33 months, or 14.78 percent above the 9 months of supply in the third quarter of 2017, and 47.57 percent higher than the average of 7 months of unsold supply in the second quarter of this year. Through Sept. 30, the monthly supply of unsold sailboat access canal homes has averaged 9.33 months in 2018, or only 1.19 percent higher than the average of 9.22 months over the first nine months of 2017. This places the sailboat access canal home segment in the high end of a neutral market range, but also quickly trending towards a buyers market.

Freshwater canal homes

Unlike the negative trends towards a higher unsold supply with Gulf and sailboat access homes, the supply of unsold homes in the Cape Coral freshwater canal home segment has been moving lower compared to last year, which is a positive trend. The unsold supply for freshwater homes was at 7 months in September, down 22.22 percent from the 9 months posted in September 2017. In the third quarter, the supply of unsold homes averaged 6 months, which was 14.29 percent below the average of 7 months in the third quarter of 2017.

Through Sept. 30, the monthly supply of unsold freshwater canal homes has averaged 6.33 months in 2018, or 12.33 percent lower than the average of 7.22 months over the first nine months of 2017. This places this segment firmly within a neutral market so far in 2018.

Dry lot homes

In September, the monthly supply of unsold homes in the Cape Coral single-family dry lot home segment came in at 6 months, which matched the 6 months of unsold supply from September 2017. In the third quarter, the unsold supply averaged 5.33 months, which was 14.13 percent higher than the average of 4.67 months of supply in the third quarter of 2017. Through Sept. 30, the monthly supply of unsold dry homes has averaged 5.56 months in 2018, or 11.2 percent higher than the average of 5 months over the first nine months of 2017. Despite trending towards a slightly higher level of unsold supply, the dry lot home segment still remains the only portion of our market in a lower inventory sellers market.

(The September and third quarter of 2018 sales data for this article were obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, as of Oct. 19, 2018. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral single-family homes, not including condominiums, foreclosures or short sales. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 39 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob, who also holds a Certified Financial Planner designation, joined with Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.)

 
 
 

 

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