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August unsold supply of Cape’s homes varies widely

September 28, 2018
By BOB & GERI QUINN - Homing In , Cape Coral Daily Breeze

Before we get into this week's topic about the monthly supply of unsold Cape Coral single-family homes and whether we are in a buyer's or a seller's market, we will finish up last week's column by providing the number of closed sales and median sales prices for our dry lot home segment. But first, since this is being written just prior to this week's Federal Reserve meeting about interest rates, we thought we would provide a quick update about mortgage rates from just before Wednesday's Fed rate announcement. This will provide us with a benchmark to work from in discussing this topic sometime in the next several weeks.

According to the most recent report last week from mortgage buyer Freddie Mac, interest rates on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage reached 4.65 percent (not including fees or points), which was the highest level since May of this year. This is 82 basis points, or 21.41 percent higher than the 3.83 percent interest rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage from a year ago. Since higher interest rates can have a negative impact on the housing market, this rising rate environment and the current overall actions of the Federal Reserve are worthy of another discussion in an upcoming column, but for now, let's wrap-up last week's topic and then move on to the unsold supply numbers.

In the Cape Coral single-family dry lot (non-canal) home segment, there were 345 closed home sales in August, which was up 5.18 percent versus the 328 homes sold in August 2017, and up 10.22 percent compared to the 313 closed sales from this past July. On a year-to-date basis through Aug. 31, there have been an average of 313.63 dry lot homes sold per month in the Cape so far this year, which is 11 percent higher compared to an average of 282.5 sold per month over the first 8 months of 2017.

The median sales price for Cape Coral dry lot homes was $226,000 for the month of August, up 7.62 percent compared to the $210,000 posted in August 2017, and 5.85 percent above the $213,500 in July of this year. So far in 2018, the median sales price in this segment has averaged $215,617 per month through Aug. 31, or 5.78 percent higher than the average of $203,842 per month over the first 8 months of 2017.

Moving to the inventory of homes, in the overall Cape Coral single-family home market, the monthly supply of unsold homes was at 5 months in August, which was flat with the 5 months of unsold supply posted in August 2017, but 16.67 percent lower versus the 6 months of unsold supply in July of this year. On a year-to-date basis through Aug. 31, the overall unsold supply of single-family homes in the Cape has averaged 6 months so far in 2018, which was down 2.12 percent from the average of 6.13 months of overall unsold supply over the first 8 months of 2017. Having a lower monthly supply of unsold homes is a good thing, and this places the overall Cape Coral single-family home market in neutral market conditions, right on the dividing line of being in a seller's market. The current market conditions for each specific property segment in the Cape, which are usually different from our overall market, are shown below.

Gulf access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family gulf access canal home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes was at 8 months in August, up 14.29 percent compared to the 7 months posted in August 2017, and flat with 8 months of unsold supply in July of this year. On a year-to-date basis through Aug. 31, the unsold supply of gulf access homes has averaged 8.75 months so far in 2018, which was 1.46 percent lower than the average of 8.88 months of unsold supply over the first 8 months of last year.

Sailboat access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family sailboat access canal home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes was higher, at 9 months in August, up 12.5 percent compared to the 8 months posted in August 2017, but down 10 percent from the 10 months of unsold supply in July of this year. On a year-to-date basis through Aug. 31, the unsold supply of sailboat access homes has averaged 9 months so far in 2018, which was down 1.42 percent from the average of 9.13 months of unsold supply over the first 8 months of 2017. This segment is in the higher-end of a neutral market and appears likely to follow its seasonal trend into a high-inventory buyer's market towards the beginning of next year, if not sooner.

Freshwater canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family freshwater canal home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at 6 months in August, which was flat with the 6 months posted in August 2017, but up 20 percent from the 5 months of unsold supply in July of this year. On a year-to-date basis through Aug. 31, the unsold supply of freshwater canal homes has averaged 6.25 months so far in 2018, which was 13.79 percent lower versus the average of 7.25 months of unsold supply over the first 8 months 2017. This segment is currently in the lower-end of a neutral market, and needs to move below 6 months of unsold supply to edge into what would be considered "seller's market" territory.

Dry lot homes

In the Cape Coral single-family dry lot home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at 5 months in August, which was up 25 percent compared to the 4 months posted in August 2017, and flat with the 5 months of unsold supply in July of this year. On a year-to-date basis through Aug. 31, the unsold supply of dry lot homes has averaged 5.5 months so far in 2018, which was 12.7 percent higher than the average of 4.88 months of unsold supply over the first 8 months of 2017. Despite an uptick in the unsold supply in this segment, it still remains the only portion of our single-family home market currently in a lower inventory seller's market.

(The August 2018 sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County as of Sept. 17, 2018. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral single-family homes, not including condominiums, foreclosures or short sales. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 39 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob, who also holds a Certified Financial Planner designation, joined with Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.)

 
 
 

 

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