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Mid-year unsold supply of Cape condos mostly in line

August 10, 2018
By BOB & GERI QUINN - Homing In , Cape Coral Daily Breeze

In analyzing the mid-year numbers for the monthly supply of unsold Cape Coral condos, there was a higher level of unsold supply sitting on the market in June compared to May of this year, but the June supply numbers were largely in line, or flat, with June of last year, which is generally a good sign. The one exception was in the sailboat access canal condo segment, where the level of unsold supply was a bit higher in June of this year, versus June of 2017. However, when analyzed on a quarterly basis, the supply of unsold Cape condos improved in the second quarter of this year, meaning the level of unsold supply was lower now, in all condo property segments, compared to the second quarter of 2017.

So, in spite of the widely publicized water quality woes from Sarasota southward, along with the added mess from Lake Okeechobee, we have seen more of a continued flattening out in the gulf and sailboat access canal segments of our real estate market, while the numbers for dry lot properties have remained solid. As we continue to see a growing number of reports about the negative impact being felt by beach and waterfront businesses throughout Southwest Florida, it seems unrealistic to think that the constant drip, drip of these water quality issues will not have a more significant impact on our market, especially with sailboat access canal properties. Stay tuned as we will be closely monitoring sales, price and listing data trends, for any additional signs of market weakness.

For the supply of unsold homes, shown below, we utilize a range for the market benchmarks of under six-months of supply as being a seller's market, six to nine months for a neutral market, and 10 months or more of unsold supply, to define the conditions as being in a buyer's market. This information can be useful for both buyers and sellers, in helping them determine if either side in a transaction has more of an advantage in negotiating the price and terms of their purchase or sale of a home or condo.

In the overall Cape Coral condominium market, the monthly supply of unsold condos increased by 40 percent to 7 months of supply in June, from 5 months of unsold supply in May, but it was in line with the 7 months of unsold supply from June of last year. The supply numbers improved in the second quarter of this year compared to last year, coming in at an average of 6 months, or 10 percent lower than the average 6.67 months of unsold supply in 2017, and they were flat with the first quarter of this year. On a year-to-date basis, through June 30, we saw similar results, with the monthly supply of unsold condos in the overall Cape market averaging 6 months so far this year, or 14.29 percent lower than the average of 7 months of unsold supply recorded over the first six months of 2017. This means our overall condo market in the Cape remains in a neutral market.

Gulf access canal condos

In the Cape Coral gulf access canal condominium market, the monthly supply of unsold condos increased by 50 percent to 9 months of supply in June, from 6 months of unsold supply in May, but it was in line with the 9 months of unsold supply from June of last year. The supply numbers also improved in the second quarter of this year compared to last year, coming in at an average of 7 months, or 8.74 percent lower than the average 7.67 months of unsold supply in the second- uarter of 2017, and flat with the 7 months of unsold supply in the first quarter of this year. On a year-to-date basis, through June 30, the monthly supply of unsold gulf access condos in the Cape averaged 7 months so far this year, or 22.22 percent lower than the average of 9 months of unsold supply posted over the first six months of 2017. This puts the gulf access condo market in the Cape in a neutral market at mid-year.

Sailboat access canal condos

In the Cape Coral sailboat access canal condominium market, the monthly supply of unsold condos increased by 25 percent to 10 months of supply in June, from 8 months of unsold supply in May, and it was 11.11 percent higher than the 9 months of unsold supply from June of last year. However, the supply numbers improved in the second quarter of this year compared to last year, coming in at an average of 8.33 months, or 16.7 percent lower than the average 10 months of unsold supply in the second quarter of 2017, but 19 percent higher than the 7 months of unsold supply in the first quarter of this year. So far this year, through June 30, the monthly supply of unsold sailboat access condos in the Cape averaged 7.67 months, or 42.46 percent lower than the average of 13.33 months of unsold supply posted over the first six months of 2017. This large differential was caused by an unusually high level of unsold supply in January of 2017, when the number of closed sailboat condo sales came in abnormally low. This resulted in a sharp spike in the unsold supply numbers for that single month. At mid-year, the Cape's sailboat access condo market was in a neutral market.

Dry lot condos

In the Cape Coral dry lot condominium market segment, the monthly supply of unsold condos also increased in June, up by 25 percent to 5 months of supply from 4 months of unsold supply in May, but it was flat with the 5 months of unsold supply from June of last year. The supply numbers improved in the second quarter of this year compared to last year, coming in at an average of 4.67 months, or 17.64 percent lower than the average 5.67 months of unsold supply in the second quarter of 2017. Dry lot condos were the only condo segment in Cape Coral where the second quarter came in with a lower supply than the first quarter of this year, with a drop of 12.38 percent from 5.33 months of supply to 4.67 months. Year-to-date, through June 30, the monthly supply of unsold dry lot condos in the Cape averaged 5 months so far this year, or 6.19 percent lower than the average of 5.33 months of unsold supply posted over the first six months of 2017. This makes the dry lot condo segment stand out as the only portion of Cape Coral's condo market considered to be in a lower inventory seller's market at mid-year.

(The June and second-quarter mid-year 2018 sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, as of July 30, 2018. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral condominiums, villas, and townhouses, and does not include single-family homes, short sales or foreclosures. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 38 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob, who also holds a Certified Financial Planner designation, joined with Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.)

 
 
 

 

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