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Cape supply of unsold homes continues moving lower

June 29, 2018
Cape Coral Daily Breeze

Just to wrap-up last week's column on the number of homes sold and median sales prices, the number of Cape Coral single-family dry lot homes sold so far in 2018 remains robust, as there were there were 344 home sales closed in this segment during May. This was 6.17 percent higher than the 324 homes sold in May of last year, but down 5.49 percent from the 364 home sales closed in April of this year. Year-to-date in 2018, through May 31, we have averaged 303.6 dry lot homes sold per month in Cape Coral, up 17.4 percent compared to the 258.6 homes sold per month over the first 5 months of 2017. Also, with 708 closed home sales in the dry lot segment in just the first 2 months of the second quarter, we will easily surpass the total of 810 closed sales over the first 3 months of this year, and we should top the 942 homes sold in the second quarter of last year.

Median sales prices in the Cape Coral single-family dry lot home segment are up 3.96 percent to an average of $214,243 per month after the first 5 months of 2018, compared to the 12-month average of $206,092 in 2017. The median sales price for dry lot homes in the month of May came in at $215,182 and it has remained in a tight range of between $210,750 and $218,335 per month over the first 5 months of this year.

Moving back to this week's topic, which is the monthly supply of unsold homes, we are continuing to track the typical seasonal trend towards lower levels of unsold supply in the overall Cape Coral single-family home market. In following the pattern so far in 2018, we hit our peak levels of supply at 8 months in both January and February, followed by a decline to 6 months in March.

In both April and May the levels of supply sitting on our market unsold continued to decline, coming in at 5 months each. Through the first 5 months of 2018, we are averaging a monthly supply of unsold homes listed for sale in our overall single-family home market of 6.4 months, which is 5.88 percent lower than the average of 6.8 months of unsold supply over the same time frame last year.

This is the time of year when we usually see a market divergence, where the overall market becomes a seller's market on a quarterly basis, with an average monthly supply of unsold homes below 6 months, but the year-to-date average usually remains above 6 months of unsold supply and in a neutral market. This may sound confusing, but it is a prime example of why it is important to analyze our real estate market by specific property segments, as we do below, in order to understand the nuances of the separate markets within our market. As you will see, the market conditions of whether we are in a buyer's market or a seller's market can vary widely by specific property types.

Gulf access canal homes

After a rocky start to the year with the typical seasonal trend in place of having a high level of unsold homes sitting on the market in the first 3 months of 2018, the Cape Coral gulf access canal home segment looks to be on track to post its lowest level of unsold supply in the second quarter of any year since 2013. This market segment was in a buyer's market, with an average monthly unsold supply of 11.67 months during the first quarter of this year, but with the monthly supply of unsold homes dropping to 7 months in both April and May, the average unsold supply has dropped to 9.8 months year-to-date through May 31. This puts this segment in the higher end of a neutral market range and matches the 9.8 months of unsold supply over the first 5 months of 2017.

Sailboat access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family sailboat access canal home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes has been running a bit lower than the gulf access segment so far this year. For anyone new to Cape Coral real estate, the sailboat access canal home segment has no bridges for boaters to go under in the canal system, so these homeowners can have larger boats docked behind their homes. Through May 31 of this year, this segment has averaged 9.2 months of unsold supply, which is 13.78 percent below the first quarter average of 10.67 months, and 2 percent below the average of 9.4 months over the first 5 months of 2017. The unsold supply in this segment for the month of May came in at 7 months, which was 30 percent less than the 10 months of unsold supply in May of 2017.

Freshwater canal homes

Despite the monthly supply of unsold Cape Coral freshwater canal homes moving higher in the month of May, up 40 percent to 7 months of supply from 5 months in April, and up 16.67 percent from 6 months in May of 2017, the average over the first 5 months of 2018 compares favorably to last year. Through May 31 of this year, the average unsold supply in this segment is 6.8 months, or 17 percent below the average of 8.2 months of unsold supply over the first 5 months of 2017, and below the 12-month average supply of 7.17 months for the year in 2017.

The monthly increase in unsold supply this May was likely due to the drop off in the number of closed home sales in this segment, which we discussed last week. Freshwater canal homes remain locked in neutral market conditions.

Dry lot homes

The supply of unsold homes in the Cape Coral single-family dry lot home segment moved back into a seller's market for the year, with an average year-to-date supply of 5.8 months of unsold homes through May 31. This is 7.41 percent higher than the average of 5.4 months ?of unsold supply over the first 5 months of last year, and 14.17 percent above the 12-month average supply of 5.08 months for the year in 2017. However, with the month of May posting the third straight month at only 5 months of unsold supply, this remains the only segment of our market that is clearly in a seller's market, after spending the first quarter of this year in a neutral market with an average supply of 6.33 months.

(The May 2018 sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, as of June 18, 2018. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral single-family homes, not including condominiums, foreclosures, or short sales. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinn's are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 38 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob, who also holds a Certified Financial Planner designation, joined with Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.)

 
 
 

 

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