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Seasonal trends for supply of unsold homes in place

April 27, 2018
By BOB and GERI QUINN - Homing In , Cape Coral Daily Breeze

Although market statistics play an important role in analyzing market conditions, we realize that looking at a bunch of numbers can be overwhelming to a lot of people. So today, as we analyze the monthly supply of unsold Cape Coral single-family homes, we thought we would try to give you a better understanding about why we look at the various market statistics we discuss every month, over what can seem to be a dizzying array of multiple time frames.

The reason we compare "the numbers" over various time frames is because it can help us to better identify current and shifting market trends, along with providing a more accurate reading on how the market is performing. If we only looked at shorter time frames, such as analyzing the numbers on a month-to-month basis, we know we are likely to have more volatile swings in the results, which can make the information less reliable. But the information from these shorter-term time frames can help us confirm if a longer-term market trend is still in place, and can help us anticipate what is likely to happen next in our market. When we compare the market results over a somewhat longer time frame, such as on a quarterly or year-over-year basis, it can help smooth out some of the shorter-term market volatility and give us a more accurate and reliable reading about the current market trends.

For example, we know that the supply of unsold homes is usually higher in the first quarter of a new year than it is in the fourth quarter of the previous year, but the supply usually hits its peak in January and February. Then it typically declines in the month of March, before continuing even lower into the second quarter of the year. So the month-to-month number from February to March can help us confirm that the quarterly trends are still in place. This allows us to anticipate that the supply of unsold homes should continue declining in April through June, in large part because the second quarter is usually the peak time of year for closed home sales. So if your home is priced correctly to the market, we are in the sweet spot for getting it sold in the next several months and you should not take it off of the market at this point in time. Here are the numbers for the month of March and the first quarter.

In the overall Cape Coral single-family home market, the monthly supply of unsold homes in the month of March was 6 months, which was the same as in March 2017, and down 25 percent compared to the 8 months of unsold supply in February of this year. On a quarterly basis, the unsold supply in the first quarter of 2018 averaged 7.33 months, or 15.8 percent higher than the average of 6.33 months posted in the fourth quarter of 2017, and it was 4.43 percent lower than in the first quarter of last year. Based upon the level of monthly supply, our overall market is neutral, while our seasonal trends are still in place and confirmed.

Gulf access canal homes

In the month of March, the monthly supply of unsold Cape Coral single-family gulf access canal homes was at 10 months, which was up 25 percent from the 8 months of unsold supply in March 2017, but it was 16.67 percent lower than 12 months of unsold supply in February of this year. The supply of unsold gulf access homes ticked up a bit higher in the first quarter of 2018, with an average unsold supply of 11.67 months, which was up 6.09 percent from the average of 11 months in both the first quarter and fourth quarter of 2017. This kept gulf access homes in a higher inventory buyer's market for the first quarter of 2018, but our seasonal trends are still in place and confirmed, although the supply levels are running higher at this point compared to last year.

Sailboat access canal homes

In Cape Coral single-family sailboat access canal homes, which is a subgroup of the gulf access canal home segment, the supply of unsold homes in the month of March was also at 10 months, and had the same 25 percent increase in supply versus March 2017, when the unsold supply was 8 months. The March unsold supply was down 9.09 percent from the 11 months of supply in February of this year. In the first quarter of 2018, the unsold supply of homes averaged 10.67 months, which was 3.29 percent higher than the 10.33 months of supply from the first quarter of last year, but it was 17.9 percent lower than the average of 13 months in the fourth quarter of 2017. Despite remaining in a buyer's market during the first quarter of this year, this segment looks to be in slightly better shape than the broader gulf access home segment, and on trend for a decreasing supply in the second quarter.

Freshwater canal homes

In the month of March, the monthly supply of unsold Cape Coral freshwater canal homes came in at 6 months, which matched the 6 months of unsold supply from March of last year, and it was 14.29 percent lower than the 7 months of supply in February. On another positive note, the unsold supply of freshwater canal homes averaged 7.33 months in the first quarter of this year, or 21.44 percent less than the average of 9.33 months of supply in the first quarter of last year, while coming in 22.17 percent higher than the average supply of 6 months in the fourth quarter of 2017. So this segment is in a neutral market with the seasonal trends in place and confirmed.

Dry lot homes

On a quarterly basis, the Cape Coral single-family dry lot home segment is in a neutral market, as the first quarter of 2018 had an average supply of unsold homes of 6.33 months, which was 5.5 percent higher than the unsold supply of 6 months in the first quarter of 2017, ?and 18.76 percent higher than the 5.33 months of supply from the fourth quarter last year. In the month of March, the unsold supply came in at 5 months, which was 37.5 percent lower than in February, but flat with March of 2017, which also had an unsold supply of 5 months. This has been the one segment of the Cape Coral single-family home market that has had a consistently lower supply of unsold homes than the rest of our market, so with the seasonal trends in place and confirmed, we would expect dry lot homes to return to seller's market conditions over the next several months.

(The March 2018 sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County as of April 15, 2018. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral single-family homes, not including condominiums, foreclosures, or short sales. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinn's are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 38 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob, who also holds a Certified Financial Planner designation, joined with Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.)

 
 
 

 

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