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Cape ranges from neutral to buyer’s market in February

March 30, 2018
By BOB and GERI QUINN - Homing In , Cape Coral Daily Breeze

When it comes to months of inventory, or what we prefer to call the supply of unsold homes listed for sale in Cape Coral, we are pretty much following the well-established seasonal trends so far in 2018. Our single-family home market is seeing the typically higher level of unsold supply for this time of year, which places our market in a range from being in a neutral market to a buyer's market, depending upon the specific property type we are analyzing. We have provided a breakdown below by our primary property segments.

In the overall Cape Coral single-family home market, the monthly supply of unsold homes listed for sale declined 11.11 percent to 8 months in February, versus a 9 month supply in February 2017, while remaining flat with the 8 months of supply in January of this year. The unsold supply for the first two months of 2018 averaged 8 months in the overall Cape single-family home market, which was 5.88 percent lower than the average supply of 8.5 months in January and February 2017.

While this places our overall market firmly within neutral market conditions, this is the lowest level of unsold monthly supply at the beginning of the year over the last 5 years. Since we usually see the supply of unsold homes decrease in the month of March, this lower level of seasonal supply could lead to an even tighter supply of reasonably-priced homes listed for sale in the second quarter of this year. This means we would expect to see any home priced properly to the market to sell quickly, especially for homes listed from about the $320,000 and under price range, while homes viewed by "the market" as being overpriced, will tend to sit on the market unsold.

Gulf access canal homes

The level of the unsold monthly supply of Cape Coral gulf access canal homes remains on the high side, beginning the year firmly in a buyer's market, as the month of February came in at 12 months of unsold supply. This was fractionally higher than the 11 months of unsold supply in February 2017, but 7.69 percent below the 13 months of supply from January of this year. The first 2 months of 2018 had an average unsold supply of 12.5 months, which matched the 12.5 months of unsold supply from January and February 2017. Based on the typical seasonal trends, we would expect to see a decline in the level of unsold supply in the gulf access canal home segment in the month of March, with the supply continuing lower into the second quarter of this year. This is due in large part to the stronger number of home sales we usually see in the second quarter of the year.

Sailboat access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family sailboat access canal home segment, which is a subgroup of gulf access canal homes, we are also stuck firmly in the typical seasonal buyer's market conditions, with an 11 month supply of unsold homes in February. This is 22.22 percent higher than the 9 months of supply posted in February 2017, while coming in flat against the 11 months of unsold supply from January of this year. For the first 2 months of 2018, the 11-month average of unsold supply in the sailboat access canal home segment came in 4.35 percent below the average of 11.5 months of unsold supply from January and February 2017. We would also expect to see the level of unsold sailboat access home supply to move lower in the second quarter of 2018.

Freshwater canal homes

The monthly supply of unsold Cape Coral single-family freshwater canal homes has seen the biggest decline in supply out of all of our property segments at the beginning of 2018, with a 36.36 percent drop in supply to 7 months in February, versus an 11 month supply in February 2017. The February supply was also 22.22 percent lower than the 9 months of unsold supply posted in January of this year, while the average in the first 2 months of 2018 has been 8 months of unsold supply, which was 27.27 percent below the average of 11 months of unsold supply from January and February 2017. The primary reason for this large decline in the unsold supply in this segment was most likely due to the big increase in the number of freshwater canal homes sold in the first 2 months of this year. This property segment is currently in a neutral market, where there is no clear advantage to a buyer or a seller in negotiating the price and terms of a purchase or sale.

Dry lot canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family dry lot (non-canal) home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes sitting on the market, climbed 14.29 percent to 8 months of supply in February compared to 7 months of supply in February 2017. The 8 months of supply in February was also 33.33 percent higher than the 6 months of unsold supply in January of this year. The average monthly supply of unsold dry lot homes in the first 2 months of 2018 has been 7 months, which was 7.69 percent higher than the average of 6.5 months of unsold supply from January and February of 2017. This segment is also in a neutral market right now.

The increased supply of unsold homes in the dry lot home segment in February is likely due to several different factors, one of which could be the higher median sales prices in this segment. As the number of really low priced homes have disappeared from our market, the median sales prices of dry lot homes in Cape Coral have steadily increased. We have also seen a 37.67 percent increase in the number of new listings that have come on to our market this February, compared to last February, while the number of active listings of dry lot homes for sale in the Cape this February have increased by 22.35 percent versus February 2017. We expect the seasonal trends to result in a declining monthly supply of unsold homes in this property segment in the month of March, with the declines in the supply continuing into the second quarter of this year when we usually reach our peak in the number of homes sold.

(The February 2018 sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County as of March 20, 2018. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral single-family homes, not including condominiums, foreclosures or short sales. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 38 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob, who also holds a Certified Financial Planner designation, joined with Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.)

 
 
 

 

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